(Scroll down for our Props below the game 6 intro commentary. Our series intro is here.)
We've made it. After 2,430 regular season and 40 Postseason games, we are finally on the verge of crowning a new World Series champion. Elimination day(s) has arrived and the series returns back to Houston where the Astros look to be the first team since the 2013 Boston Red Sox to clinch the World Series in front of their hometown fans.
To achieve this, they send to the mound their now 19-game winner (including the Postseason), Framber Valdez, who has been much better this time around in the Postseason and more importantly, the World Series. This year, he's only given up 3 earned runs in 19 innings and completely shut down the Phillies in game 2 of the World Series, compared to last year's 17 earned runs in almost 20 innings, 10 of which came in his two World Series starts. He said after his recent game 2 victory that last year his emotions got the best of him, safe to say he has turned the key and locked in.
The Phillies will try to jump on Valdez's sinker which he throws about 50% of the time, as their lineup thrives on hard stuff, but also in the regular season batters hit a very respectable .293 on that sinker. The real challenges come on the other 50%, a combination of curveball (30%), cutter (10%), and changeup (10%). On those pitches in the regular season, hitters had a .145 average. And contrary to the fastball, we have seen the Phillies' struggles with offspeed pitches to this point.
We do know of one guy in the Phillies lineup who can hit literally anything you throw him, Bryce Harper. The Astros will look to continue to limit him as they did in game 5. They more or less pitched around him, walking him twice and hitting him with a pitch. The one pitch Verlander made a mistake on, he smoked for a double. I have to imagine this trend will continue as he is the last guy the Astros want to beat them. As a result it will come down to the top players surrounding Harper in the batting order to them pay, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos. If that's going to happen, they'll need to break their World Series slump, all three only have 3 hits in 20 or 21 at-bats so far.
The other top player they need a bounce back performance from is Zach Wheeler. Unlike Framber, this year maybe he is the one whose emotions got the best of him in his first World Series start. In game 2 he gave up 5 runs, 4 earned in 5 innings. Other than that, he's mostly displayed and built on his regular season brilliance, coming up huge in shutting down the Cardinals and in two starts against the Padres. With him on the mound, the Phillies should have as much confidence as they can to force a game 7 where anything can happen.
Against Wheeler, the Astros' offensive approach will be much of the same. Unlike the Phillies who've relied so much on the home run ball for scoring, the Astros have been extremely balanced. So far this series and Postseason they've scored with power (home runs), consecutive base hits (singles and doubles), execution (sac flies, hit and runs), and patience (walks, hit by pitch). If anything, there is still another level this offense can go if Yordan Alvarez can find his stroke. In this World Series, he only has two hits with one double in 19 at-bats and for the Postseason is only hitting .188. You can not expect that to last for too much longer so Philly fans must keep their fingers crossed that it does for only two more games.
At this point, it's all hands on deck for both teams, one is trying to survive, while the other is trying to close this out and avoid a winner take all game 7. We may see starters pulled quickly, starters come in relief, aggressive base running, and scratching and clawing for any runs and run saving defensive plays. If one thing is for sure, players will be laying it all out on the line as there may not be a tomorrow. Will Houston be able to win their first World Series since the tainted 2017 season and this time do it in front of their home fans or will we see a repeat of 2019 where the Astros led the Nationals 3-2 going back home only to lose 2 straight games?
I can't wait to find out.
Our Game 6 Props are below to add some additional fun while you watch. All have nearly even chances of happening, so anyone can play. Grab some friendly competition and see who can get the most correct!
The Props:
Total Hits combined in 1st inning of 2 or more:
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Zack Wheeler to allow 2 or more Earned Runs:
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Framber Valdez to pitch 6 full innings (18 outs):
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Bryce Harper to score 1 Run or more:
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Yordan Alvarez to have 2 or more Total Bases (hits only):
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Astros Total Runs to be 4 or more:
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Phillies Total Runs to be:
[ ] Odd
[ ] Even
Tiebreaker: Guess the Total Runs scored by both teams combined, closest to the result wins! (Currently estimated to be around 7)
PS. Fanatics is offering up to 65% off sitewide.
Photo by Erik Drost. Link to license.
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